England has already decided which coastline it will not defend. 38,722 addresses sit inside the projected loss.

Check your own address against the same data

The free check names the frontage behind your postcode, its policy today and in the long term, and the projected recession — the same records this analysis is built from, read for one address.

By local authority

Every hit was attributed to its local authority by reverse-geocoding the address point itself, not the frontage — a frontage can straddle a boundary. Authorities with fewer than 10 addresses (10 of them, 36 addresses) are in the CSV rather than paraded here.

Download the full tables: by local authority (CSV) · every frontage (CSV)

The frontages with the most addresses at stake

Method — so the number can be checked

1. Harvest the full Environment Agency NCERM 2024 dataset — 7,494 frontages, each carrying its Shoreline Management Plan policy for two epochs and its projected recession under the plan as delivered.
2. Keep frontages whose long-term policy is No Active Intervention or Managed Realignment (compound policies resolve to the less favourable component) and that carry a 2105 projection: 3,451 frontages. Frontages with no projection, blank or “Pending Agreement” policies are excluded and reported, never folded in.
3. Build each frontage's loss zone from its own projected recession — never a flat buffer — and stream all 41,593,225 OS Open UPRN address points against the zones. Each address counts once, attributed to its nearest frontage.
4. Reverse-geocode every hit to its local authority. 38,706 of 38,722 resolved; 16 could not be attributed and are reported here rather than dropped.

Sources: Environment Agency NCERM 2024 (OGL v3) · OS Open UPRN (OGL v3) · postcodes.io. Analysis dated 2026-08-04; SMPs are reviewed periodically, so rerun the pipeline before quoting this page against a newer plan.

Does this mean these addresses will be lost to the sea?

No, and the analysis does not claim it. It counts addresses inside the recession the Environment Agency projects by 2105 under the plan as delivered, on frontages whose Shoreline Management Plan policy is No Active Intervention or Managed Realignment. A projection is not a prediction for an individual property, an SMP is a statement of intent rather than a funded commitment, and policies are reviewed and do change. What the number measures is how many addresses sit where the current plan does not intend to hold the coast.

Why "addresses" and not "homes"?

The address layer is OS Open UPRN, which records every addressable location in Great Britain but carries no classification — open data cannot say which points are houses and which are businesses, beach huts or utility structures. Calling them homes would overstate what the data supports, so we do not.

Why is Fairbourne not in the list?

Because it is in Wales. NCERM is an Environment Agency dataset and covers England only, so the count is an England count — Wales (Natural Resources Wales) and Scotland (Dynamic Coast) publish separate datasets that would support separate analyses. The most famous planned-decommissioning case in Britain being out of scope is the clearest possible illustration of the boundary.

How can I check my own address?

Enter a postcode in the checker on this page. The free result names the frontage your address sits behind, its current and long-term Shoreline Management Plan policy, and the projected recession — the same data this analysis is built from, read for one address.